Hagsveiflur og vinnuslys á Íslandi 1986-2011. (Icelandic)

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    • Alternate Title:
      Business cycles and workplace accidents in Iceland 1986-2011. (English)
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    • Abstract:
      This study is the first to explore the association between business cycles and workplace accidents using Icelandic data. The relationship is evaluated for the entire labor market, for specific sectors, by gender and by the severity of injuries. Most prior research has found workplace accidents to be pro-cyclical. Hypothesized reasons include increased labor supply and greater work intensity in upswings, and that accidents are more likely to be reported. Aggregate data for workplace accidents from the Administration of Occupational Safety and Health and several macroeconomic indicators from Statistics Iceland and Directorate of Labour were examined. The time series were non-stationary so first differences were used to detrend them. Their relationship was then examined using a linear regression model. Data from the Directorate of Health in Iceland and Statistics Iceland were used to calculate the relative risk of an accident. Pro-cyclical associations between business cycles and work-place accidents were observed, particularly in construction, in commerce and for men. The results of the relative-risk calculations indicated that workers were at considerably greater risk of having an accident in 2007 than in 2004-2006 and 2008-2011. By comparing the different estimations of the study, one can conclude that only a small part of the variability of risk can be explained by changes in labour supply. Increased risk at work, given the labor supply, seems to be a more significant reason for increased prevalence of accidents during periods of economic expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
    • Abstract:
      Í þessari grein er sambandið á milli hagsveiflna og vinnuslysa á Íslandi rannsakað í fyrsta skipti. Tengslin eru mæld fyrir vinnumarkaðinn í heild, fyrir einstakar starfsgreinar, eftir kyni og eftir alvarleika slyss. Flestar erlendar rannsóknir benda til þess að vinnuslys séu algengari í góðærum en þegar verr árar. Meðal mögulegra skýringa á jákvæðu sambandi eru að í þenslu eru fleiri starfandi, vinnuhraðinn meiri og vinnuslys frekar tilkynnt. Þessum hugsanlegu orsökum sambandsins er sérstakur gaumur gefinn í þessari rannsókn. Tímaraðagögn um vinnuslys voru fengin frá Vinnueftirlitinu. Gögn til að meta hagsveiflur voru fengin frá Hagstofunni og Vinnumálastofnun. Tímaraðirnar voru ósístæðar og var tekinn fyrsti mismunur af þeim og sambandið í kjölfarið skoðað með línulegri aðhvarfsgreiningu. Háða breytan var fjöldi vinnuslysa og óháðu breyturnar voru hagvísarnir. Jafnframt voru gögn úr Slysaskrá Íslands og frá Hagstofunni notuð til að reikna hlutfallslega hættu á vinnuslysi. Jákvætt samband fannst á milli hagsveiflna og heildarfjölda vinnuslysa. Sambandið var sterkast í byggingariðnaði, í verslunarstarfsemi og meðal karla. Útreikningar á hlutfallslegri áhættu bentu til þess að vinnandi fólk hafi verið í umtalsvert meiri hættu á slysi árið 2007 þegar þenslan var sem mest heldur en árin 2004 til 2006 og 2008 til 2011. Samanburður á milli einstakra greininga rannsóknarinnar sýndi að ekki er hægt að skýra aukna áhættu nema að litlu leyti með auknu vinnuframboði. Aukin hætta á vinnustöðum að teknu tilliti til fjölda vinnandi virðist frekar skýra aukna áhættu þegar vel árar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
    • Abstract:
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