Fuel to the Fire: Natural Disasters and the Duration of Civil Conflict.

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  • Additional Information
    • Publication Year:
      2016
    • Author-Supplied Keywords:
      civil conflict
      climate change
      environmental security
      natural disasters
    • Abstract:
      Do natural disasters prolong civil conflict? Or are disasters more likely to encourage peace as hostilities diminish when confronting shared hardship or as shifts in the balance of power between insurgents and the state hasten cessation? To address these questions, this study performs an event history analysis of disasters’ impact on the duration of 224 armed intrastate conflicts occurring in 86 states between 1946 and 2005. I contend that natural disasters increase conflict duration by decreasing the state’s capacity to suppress insurgency, while reinforcing insurgent groups’ ability to evade capture and avoid defeat. First, disasters’ economic impact coupled with state financial outlays for disaster relief and reconstruction, reduce resources available for counterinsurgency and nation building in conflict zones. Second, the military’s role in administering humanitarian assistance can reduce the availability of troops and military hardware for counterinsurgency, prompt temporary ceasefires with insurgents, or both. Third, natural disasters can cause infrastructural damages that disproportionately hinder the state’s capacity to execute counterinsurgency missions, thereby making insurgent forces more difficult to capture and overcome. The combination of these dynamics should encourage longer conflicts in states with higher incidence of disaster. Empirical evidence strongly supports this contention, indicating that states with greater disaster vulnerability fight longer wars. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
    • Abstract:
      Copyright of International Interactions is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
    • ISSN:
      03050629
    • Accession Number:
      114016068
  • Citations
    • ABNT:
      EASTIN, J. Fuel to the Fire: Natural Disasters and the Duration of Civil Conflict. International Interactions, [s. l.], v. 42, n. 2, p. 322, 2016. Disponível em: http://widgets.ebscohost.com/prod/customlink/proxify/proxify.php?count=1&encode=0&proxy=&find_1=&replace_1=&target=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edb&AN=114016068&authtype=sso&custid=s5834912. Acesso em: 29 nov. 2020.
    • AMA:
      Eastin J. Fuel to the Fire: Natural Disasters and the Duration of Civil Conflict. International Interactions. 2016;42(2):322. Accessed November 29, 2020. http://widgets.ebscohost.com/prod/customlink/proxify/proxify.php?count=1&encode=0&proxy=&find_1=&replace_1=&target=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edb&AN=114016068&authtype=sso&custid=s5834912
    • APA:
      Eastin, J. (2016). Fuel to the Fire: Natural Disasters and the Duration of Civil Conflict. International Interactions, 42(2), 322.
    • Chicago/Turabian: Author-Date:
      Eastin, Joshua. 2016. “Fuel to the Fire: Natural Disasters and the Duration of Civil Conflict.” International Interactions 42 (2): 322. http://widgets.ebscohost.com/prod/customlink/proxify/proxify.php?count=1&encode=0&proxy=&find_1=&replace_1=&target=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edb&AN=114016068&authtype=sso&custid=s5834912.
    • Harvard:
      Eastin, J. (2016) ‘Fuel to the Fire: Natural Disasters and the Duration of Civil Conflict’, International Interactions, 42(2), p. 322. Available at: http://widgets.ebscohost.com/prod/customlink/proxify/proxify.php?count=1&encode=0&proxy=&find_1=&replace_1=&target=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edb&AN=114016068&authtype=sso&custid=s5834912 (Accessed: 29 November 2020).
    • Harvard: Australian:
      Eastin, J 2016, ‘Fuel to the Fire: Natural Disasters and the Duration of Civil Conflict’, International Interactions, vol. 42, no. 2, p. 322, viewed 29 November 2020, .
    • MLA:
      Eastin, Joshua. “Fuel to the Fire: Natural Disasters and the Duration of Civil Conflict.” International Interactions, vol. 42, no. 2, Apr. 2016, p. 322. EBSCOhost, widgets.ebscohost.com/prod/customlink/proxify/proxify.php?count=1&encode=0&proxy=&find_1=&replace_1=&target=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edb&AN=114016068&authtype=sso&custid=s5834912.
    • Chicago/Turabian: Humanities:
      Eastin, Joshua. “Fuel to the Fire: Natural Disasters and the Duration of Civil Conflict.” International Interactions 42, no. 2 (April 2016): 322. http://widgets.ebscohost.com/prod/customlink/proxify/proxify.php?count=1&encode=0&proxy=&find_1=&replace_1=&target=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edb&AN=114016068&authtype=sso&custid=s5834912.
    • Vancouver/ICMJE:
      Eastin J. Fuel to the Fire: Natural Disasters and the Duration of Civil Conflict. International Interactions [Internet]. 2016 Apr [cited 2020 Nov 29];42(2):322. Available from: http://widgets.ebscohost.com/prod/customlink/proxify/proxify.php?count=1&encode=0&proxy=&find_1=&replace_1=&target=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edb&AN=114016068&authtype=sso&custid=s5834912