[A bio-demographic analysis of Japanese fertility via micro-simulation].

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  • Author(s): Kono S; Hirosima K; Watanabe Y; Takahashi S; Kaneko R
  • Source:
    Jinko Mondai Kenkyu. [Journal Of Population Problems] [Jinko Mondai Kenkyu] 1983 Oct (168), pp. 1-29.
  • Publication Type:
    English Abstract; Journal Article
  • Language:
    Japanese
  • Additional Information
    • Source:
      Publisher: Jinko Mondai Kenkyusho Country of Publication: Japan NLM ID: 0117635 Publication Model: Print Cited Medium: Print ISSN: 0387-2793 (Print) Linking ISSN: 03872793 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Jinko Mondai Kenkyu
    • Publication Information:
      Original Publication: Tokyo : Jinko Mondai Kenkyusho
    • Subject Terms:
    • Contributed Indexing:
      Indexing Agency: PIP Local ID #: 023435. Indexing Agency: POP Local ID #: 00133561.
      Keywords: Asia; Birth Rate; Breast Feeding; Contraceptive Usage; Demographic Factors*; Developed Countries; Developing Countries; Eastern Asia*; Fecundability; Fertility; Fertility Measurements; Fertility Rate*; Fetal Death; Infant Mortality; Japan; Marriage Age; Population; Population Dynamics; Total Fertility Rate
      Note: TJ: JINKO MONDAI KENKYU
      Local Abstract: [PIP] The present study deals with biodemographic factors affecting the level and trend of Japanese fertility via microsimulation. The prototype of this microsimulation study was the UN Population Division model developed by S. Inoue in 1977. However, considerable modifications have been made by the authors at the Institute of Population Problems in the areas of conception, mortality, and nuptiality. In addition, the Institute conducted a field survey in 1981 with a sample of 3000 married couples, making inquiries of pregnancies, contraceptive use, breastfeeding experience, and state of sterility and infertility. The present model was designed to generate age specific fertility rate and other fertility indices such as marital fertility rates, parity of distribution women, rates of pregnancy, and induced and spontaneous abortions. The input variables to the model amount to 20, which include residual fecundability, breastfeeding period, infant mortality, fetal mortality, method use effectiveness, family planning practice rate, and expected fertility. Of 20 variables, 12 can be changed freely at their levels, thus permitting the authors to assess the effects of each variable or a combination. An additional feature of the present model is its power to make a dynamic simulation. This feature can produce fertility trends over a period of 45 years with changing assumptions and is expected to clarify the time dimension of the variables. Major findings are as follows. 1) The present microsimulation study can present an array of biodemographic parameters after the model was able to simulate the trend and level of Japanese fertility both in cohort and period measures from 1945-82. Many biodemographic indicators were not available from the present data and it is considered meaningful that this model can provide some concrete figures on the length of infertility while breastfeeding, abortion rate, use effectiveness, and so on. 2) 1 very interesting feature of this model is that once the simulation demonstrates a good fit, it is possible to assess the effect of the change in each variable upon the change in fertility. Age at 1st marriage and expected fertility are very important factors in determining the very low fertility among Japanese women in recent years. 3) The model simulation was performed to appraise the extent to which the change in cohort fertility affects period fertility. Change in marriage age provides a very interesting result. It shows that by increasing marriage age by 2 years during a 10-year period, the period total fertility rate dips deeply and takes about 30 years to return to a level where cohort total fertility rate is again stabilized. 4) According to the simulation, the Japanese total fertility rate in the periodic measure starts increasing in a year or 2 and would return to the level of 1.90 by 1990 or earlier. (author's modified)
    • Publication Date:
      Date Created: 19831001 Date Completed: 19841003 Latest Revision: 20091111
    • Publication Date:
      20181210
    • Accession Number:
      12155118
  • Citations
    • ABNT:
      KONO, S. et al. [A bio-demographic analysis of Japanese fertility via micro-simulation]. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu. [Journal Of Population Problems], [s. l.], n. 168, p. 1–29, 1983. Disponível em: http://widgets.ebscohost.com/prod/customlink/proxify/proxify.php?count=1&encode=0&proxy=&find_1=&replace_1=&target=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=mdc&AN=12155118&authtype=sso&custid=s5834912. Acesso em: 30 mar. 2020.
    • AMA:
      Kono S, Hirosima K, Watanabe Y, Takahashi S, Kaneko R. [A bio-demographic analysis of Japanese fertility via micro-simulation]. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu [Journal Of Population Problems]. 1983;(168):1-29. http://widgets.ebscohost.com/prod/customlink/proxify/proxify.php?count=1&encode=0&proxy=&find_1=&replace_1=&target=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=mdc&AN=12155118&authtype=sso&custid=s5834912. Accessed March 30, 2020.
    • APA:
      Kono, S., Hirosima, K., Watanabe, Y., Takahashi, S., & Kaneko, R. (1983). [A bio-demographic analysis of Japanese fertility via micro-simulation]. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu. [Journal Of Population Problems], 168, 1–29.
    • Chicago/Turabian: Author-Date:
      Kono, S, K Hirosima, Y Watanabe, S Takahashi, and R Kaneko. 1983. “[A Bio-Demographic Analysis of Japanese Fertility via Micro-Simulation].” Jinko Mondai Kenkyu. [Journal Of Population Problems], no. 168 (October): 1–29. http://widgets.ebscohost.com/prod/customlink/proxify/proxify.php?count=1&encode=0&proxy=&find_1=&replace_1=&target=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=mdc&AN=12155118&authtype=sso&custid=s5834912.
    • Harvard:
      Kono, S. et al. (1983) ‘[A bio-demographic analysis of Japanese fertility via micro-simulation]’, Jinko Mondai Kenkyu. [Journal Of Population Problems], (168), pp. 1–29. Available at: http://widgets.ebscohost.com/prod/customlink/proxify/proxify.php?count=1&encode=0&proxy=&find_1=&replace_1=&target=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=mdc&AN=12155118&authtype=sso&custid=s5834912 (Accessed: 30 March 2020).
    • Harvard: Australian:
      Kono, S, Hirosima, K, Watanabe, Y, Takahashi, S & Kaneko, R 1983, ‘[A bio-demographic analysis of Japanese fertility via micro-simulation]’, Jinko Mondai Kenkyu. [Journal Of Population Problems], no. 168, pp. 1–29, viewed 30 March 2020, .
    • MLA:
      Kono, S., et al. “[A Bio-Demographic Analysis of Japanese Fertility via Micro-Simulation].” Jinko Mondai Kenkyu. [Journal Of Population Problems], no. 168, Oct. 1983, pp. 1–29. EBSCOhost, widgets.ebscohost.com/prod/customlink/proxify/proxify.php?count=1&encode=0&proxy=&find_1=&replace_1=&target=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=mdc&AN=12155118&authtype=sso&custid=s5834912.
    • Chicago/Turabian: Humanities:
      Kono, S, K Hirosima, Y Watanabe, S Takahashi, and R Kaneko. “[A Bio-Demographic Analysis of Japanese Fertility via Micro-Simulation].” Jinko Mondai Kenkyu. [Journal Of Population Problems], no. 168 (October 1983): 1–29. http://widgets.ebscohost.com/prod/customlink/proxify/proxify.php?count=1&encode=0&proxy=&find_1=&replace_1=&target=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=mdc&AN=12155118&authtype=sso&custid=s5834912.
    • Vancouver/ICMJE:
      Kono S, Hirosima K, Watanabe Y, Takahashi S, Kaneko R. [A bio-demographic analysis of Japanese fertility via micro-simulation]. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu [Journal Of Population Problems] [Internet]. 1983 Oct [cited 2020 Mar 30];(168):1–29. Available from: http://widgets.ebscohost.com/prod/customlink/proxify/proxify.php?count=1&encode=0&proxy=&find_1=&replace_1=&target=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=mdc&AN=12155118&authtype=sso&custid=s5834912